Frank Brogan is looking more and more like the man who could help the Florida GOP establishment take back the Governor’s Mansion after disappointing elections in 2006 and 2010. That would mean big trouble for incumbent Rick Scott in 2014.Back when Brogan became Jeb Bush’s runningmate in 1998, many pundits speculated that he would be next in line for the top job. But Brogan bid Tallahassee farewell shortly after Jeb’s reelection in 2002 in order to take the comfy $290,000-salary presidency of Florida Atlantic University. His pay later climbed up to $357,000.
Brogan sat peacefully on the sidelines while his fellow establishment Republicans botched two gubernatorial elections. Charlie Crist pulled an Arnold Schwarzenegger-style victory over establishment candidate Tom Gallagher in 2006. That was followed by another bad beating in 2010 when Tea Partier Rick Scott defeated Bill McCollum.
Scott is now getting bad coverage from Florida’s newspapers for his support of drastic budget cuts. The St. Petersburg Times editorial board has dubbed him “the job-killing governor.”
The governor’s rock-bottom poll numbers are good news for the Obama reelection campaign. A Quinnipiac University poll released last week showed that Scott’s approval rating is at a low 29 percent. U.S. President Barack Obama’s approval rating in Florida has jumped up 16 points to 51 percent.
“The data on the perceived fairness of the governor's budget is crucial. When voters by almost 2-1 say his approach is unfair to them, that's a giant flashing political warning sign for Scott,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “When voters don't think they are being treated fairly, they tend to react negatively.”
Asked about the cuts in state spending contained in the budget, 47 percent of Floridians say they go too far. 18 percent say not far enough and 22 percent say they are about right. And by 38 - 23 percent voters think those cuts will hurt, rather than help, Florida's economy.
Obama might be able to use Scott’s low poll numbers to take Florida again in 2012 but the Democrats don’t have a deep bench for the 2014 gubernatorial race. The Democrats have no one on the state cabinet. Florida Democratic Party Chairman Rod Smith isn’t exciting the base and Florida Senate Minority Leader Chris Smith is more interested in waiting to succeed FAMU alumnus Alcee Hastings in Congress.
All this opens the door for Brogan to become the GOP establishment frontrunner and peel off a big chunk of Democratic votes. Brogan’s decision to take the State University System (SUS) chancellorship back in 2009 made him a higher profile figure in the statewide media and increased his ability to travel across Florida shaking hands on the taxpayers’ dime.
Brogan has a chance to show leadership by using his clout to push for a special legislative session to override Scott’s line item vetoes of SUS building projects. Scott gutted tens of millions from the SUS Public Education Capital Outlay (PECO) budget. The SUS boards of trustees are still filled with businessmen and women who wrote big campaign checks to Jeb. The restoration of PECO appropriations would make those political donors very happy.
There is also a chance to for Brogan to help the GOP win a larger-than-usual share of black votes. FAMU supporters are still hoping that the chancellor’s office will back the university’s new proposed programs in the science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and health fields. Brogan should remember that Crist actually picked up 20 percent of the black vote in 2006.