One in 10, or 20 percent of, high school seniors who had planned to attend a four-year college this fall won’t according to a survey of more than 2,000 college-bound students conducted by SimpsonScarborough, a higher education research and marketing company. Half of the students surveyed said that their family’s financial situation had been affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. The survey was conducted March 26-30, well before the latest round of unemployment filings. Following a nearly month-long nationwide shutdown, nearly 26 million Americans, and nearly 2.5 million Floridians, have found themselves unemployed.
· Ten percent of college-bound seniors who had planned to enroll at a four-year college before the COVID-19 outbreak have already made alternative plans.
· Forty-one percent of minority high school seniors say it’s likely they won’t go to college at all in the fall or “it’s too soon to say.” That compares to 24 percent of white high school seniors.
A similar survey of 1,171 high school seniors conducted by Arts & Science (A&S) Group, April 21-24, found that one in six students who planned to attend a four-year college this fall no longer plan to do so. Their survey showed that 60 percent of students have no interest in online education. And two-thirds believe that they should pay “much less” for tuition if classes remain online the next academic year.
The A&S study also found that even 12 percent of students who have already paid tuition deposits no longer plan to attend a 4-year college full-time.
Budget implications
The potential downturn in enrollment will have obvious budgetary implications on colleges and universities. FAMU is planning for several enrollment scenarios based on a five and ten percent drop in enrollment. A five percent decline in enrollment will cost the University nearly $5.6 million in tuition and fees, while a ten percent decline would be an $11 million hit to the bottom line, according to the estimates.
The University’s assumptions don’t factor in a potential state budget cut which is like to come as a result of the economic downturn caused by the COVID pandemic.
Admissions experts suggest that even an enrollment decline of 10 percent, let alone a 20 percent decline (as the surveys predict) would be “devastating” to higher education. This latest national economic crisis is coming at a time when colleges hadn’t fully recovered from the severe budget cuts brought on by the economic downturn of 2008.