More than 100,000 fewer high school seniors have completed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid forms than in 2020, according to new, “disheartening” data released by the National College Attainment Network.
The report represents a 4.8% drop-off in year-over-year filings. All told, NCAN says around 270,000 fewer high school students have completed FAFSA forms than expected since the COVID-19 pandemic began. This trend began last year, when 500,000 fewer students completed the FAFSA at this point.
By June 30 of last year, the class of 2020 had about 81,000 fewer FAFSA completions than the class of 2019. The class of 2021 had about 190,000 fewer FAFSA completions compared to 2019.
For there to be more than a quarter million fewer FAFSAs completed relative to 2019, that represents a tremendous shifting of postsecondary pathways for students. That has real implications for students, families, communities, and our country overall.
Numbers plummeted from October 2020 through early March as uncertainty over coronavirus and financial hardships impacted families. Class of 2021 submissions in October were down 14.3% year over year, while the two previous cycles (2020-21 +14.9%, 2019-20 +0.5%) both saw gains.
One of the few positives to come out of the data is that numbers have risen steadily since the early part of this year. There is also still time for students to get them done. All told, only about 53% of high schoolers completed FAFSA forms by July 2, down 2.5% from this time in 2020.
Assessing the future
Unless there is a sharp turnaround, numbers may be mirrored for fall enrollment, particularly when it comes to underserved students. Although some institutions have reported record numbers of applications and robust acceptances, some may fall short of targets. Community colleges are again collectively holding their breath.
The drop in application rates was particularly high among students of color.
NCAN noted that FAFSA submissions dropped by 6.5% for Title I public high school filers, compared with a 3.5% drop from other schools. Schools with a majority of Black and Hispanic students experienced an 8% decline in filings, compared with 2.2% at others.